Trading record (17/6/2025)

Trading summary

Short selling S&P @6,015

Stop gain @ 6,005 (0.167%) previous day's opening price

Stop loss @ 6,028 (-0.216%) window created as a pressure at previous at closing 

Reason: Very quick gain after previous day's market opening but steadily heading down; uncertainty in the market. 

Previous close @6,033.11

Closing @5982.72 (-0.84%)

US Economics data supported bet the Fed will cut rates at least once more in 2025 (priced in first rate cut in Oct) -> Treasury rose but dollar "climbs the most in a month"

Other noteworthy assets

UK housing price

Rise in number of sales agreed by 6% compared with last year

• 13% rise in listings
• Improvement in mortgage rates and availability
• After Easter Holiday (Apr 20, 2025) and initial reaction to stamp duty relief ending

Rise in average house price by 1.6%

• Cities across North West are registering highest rates of price growth (around 3%)
• Fewer homes for sale (supply) in some areas

Looking forward:

Mortage rates further improve due to possible rate cuts -> housing demand increase, growth in sales and housing price 

Reference: 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-17/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates?srnd=phx-markets

https://www.zoopla.co.uk/discover/property-news/house-price-index/

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53319433

14 Jun: Isreal Attack on Iran

Why the attack happened?

By BBC:

"...Why he (Netanyahu) decided to go ahead with the attack right now - one that he has for so long advocated - could be for the reasons he has given.

In a statement released not long after the operation began, he said that it was a matter of Israel's survival.

But Netanyahu has been making the argument for many years that Israel faces existential threat if Iran gets a nuclear bomb. To underline the renewed urgency, a senior Israeli military official has said that there was information that Iran had enough material to make 15 nuclear bombs within days." 

Major Movement 

(please refer to Bloomberg for exact data)

The S&P 500 fell 

The Nasdaq 100 fell 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 

The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced

Spot gold rose

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose

West Texas Intermediate crude rose (Note that surge in oil price may affect US inflation and complication interest-rate path)

Recent keywords to explore

Stablecoin 

Reference

1) https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g3nz1p9wdo 

2) https://archive.is/20250613152101/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-12/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates#selection-2699.0-2699.35

港元急跌？

今年4月中，有鑑於美國股票市場的波動較大，將錢放落股票市場未必是個好選擇。筆者就想將一筆港元做定存，當時的利率（香港銀行同業拆息 (HIBOR)）差不多有4%：

因為工作繁忙，又有考試要準備，筆者很快忘記了做定存的念頭。再次想起已經是5月中，此時的利率只剩下大概0.7%：

簡單地說，港元在一個月內從4%年利率跌到差不多0.7%，直到記事當日也在0.7%左右徘徊。一週內利率的下降幅度甚至達到4.6%，是2006年以來最高。這樣過山車一樣的利率波幅算是相當罕見。

是什麼原因造成了這樣的利率波動？

根據香港金融管理局（HKMA）總裁余偉文先生解釋，這是因為5月初時對港元的強勁需求觸發聯匯制度下「強方兌換保證」。金管局按機制買入共167億美元、賣出1294億港元，令銀行體系總結餘激增4倍。市場上流通的港元（Money Supply）增加，自然港元的價值（Interest rate）就會下降，如下圖所示。

受到上述利率變化影響，美元兌港元從7.75的聯繫匯率價格區間的上限急跌到下限的7.85（見下圖）。這主要是由於利差擴大→投機者以較低利息借入港元換作較高息的美元收息→對港元需求下跌→港元貶值。也是人們俗稱的「套息交易」。

這對香港經濟是一件好事。低息環境能促進借錢投資和消費，較低的港元也能刺激出口。

但如果低息下的套息交易令港元匯率持續走弱的話，HKMA不會坐視不理。當匯率接近弱方保證，HKMA會出手干預，買入港元、賣出美元，以維持匯率穩定。這會收緊市場上的港元流動性，令利率回升。

參考連結：

1）https://www.hsbc.com.hk/zh-hk/mortgages/tools/hibor-rate/

2）https://www.learn-economics.co.uk/OCR-macroeconomics/Money-and-interest-rates.html 

3）https://www.hkma.gov.hk/chi/news-and-media/insight/2025/05/20250520/

4）https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOGM090VU0Z00C25A6000000/

文章內容僅供參考，投資人須自行承擔風險，本人不負擔盈虧之法律責任。